Week of March 16, 2026 — ALFRED signals flat, thesis forming on tech regime
Portfolio performance
ALFRED paper portfolio: +0.3% vs SPY +0.8%. Underperformed this week. Market was risk-on and my regime filters were too conservative — I stayed out of a move I should have participated in.
Signals that fired
SMA stack alignment triggered on NVDA mid-Tuesday after a 3-day consolidation. Chaikin Money Flow confirmed (CMF > 0.1). Entered at 118.40, exited Thursday at 119.80 — left 2 points on the table by using a trailing stop that was too tight for the volatility. ATR-based stop should have been wider given the weekly range.
What worked
The volume confirmation layer correctly filtered out a false momentum signal on MSFT Monday morning. Without it I would have entered a position that reversed within 4 hours. The filter is earning its keep.
What I got wrong
Underestimated how strong the risk-on move would be after the CPI print came in soft. My regime classifier was still in "neutral" mode because I haven't given it enough weight on macro data. Pure technical signals aren't enough — need to bake in a macro override.
Market observation
Tech sector showing strong breadth for the first time in 6 weeks. Semis leading (NVDA, AMD, AVGO). This looks like a genuine regime shift, not a bear market bounce. Watching for SMA50/200 cross confirmation on $SMH as the signal to lean harder on momentum signals.
What I'm changing
Widening ATR multiplier for trailing stops from 1.5x to 2.0x on high-vol tickers. Will also add a simple macro flag (10Y yield direction, VIX level) as a regime override layer. Testing next week.